Flop or next big thing?
The Apple Vision Pro is in the starting blocks
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Two particularly accurate Apple experts expect that the Vision Pro will go on sale in a few weeks. For Tim Cook & Co., a lot depends on the success of the data glasses, otherwise the company doesn't have the “next big thing” in the pipeline.
When Apple presented the Vision Pro data glasses at its WWDC developer conference last June, it was said that they would come onto the market in early 2024. The company actually seems to be able to stick to its schedule. Because two particularly accurate Apple experts expect sales to start next February at the latest.
iOS update clear sign
The update to iOS 17.2 on December 12th showed that it can't take much longer. Because with it, the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max received the ability to record 3D videos. The spatial display of the clips is only possible on the Vision Pro, which is why there is a connection with an imminent release of the data glasses.
Shortly before Christmas, Mark Gurman from “Bloomberg” wrote that mass production of the Vision Pro was already in full swing in China. Apple wants to have the planned number of units completed by the end of January so that the glasses can go on sale in February.
Low quantity, high price
According to Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple only wants to sell around 500,000 this year. In a Medium article from December 25th, the usually well-informed analyst from TF International Securities, like Gurman, assumes ongoing mass production and a sales start at the end of January, but in February at the latest.
Initially, the Vision Pro will only be available in the USA. But that alone doesn't explain the very low number of units by Apple standards. On the one hand, it is obviously technically challenging to produce the Vision Pro in larger quantities. The main problem was high error rates with the MicroLEDs for the screens of data glasses, the “Financial Times” reported last summer. Apple previously wanted to sell 1 million glasses in the first twelve months after the market launch.
At the end of September, Kuo wrote that the question was why someone would want the product. It could take longer than the market expects for the Vision Pro to become Apple's new “star product”. Kuo and other experts see one reason in the high price of $3,500. Apple may also have canceled the cheaper version planned for next year, said the analyst.
This year more important than the iPhones
Since the Vision Pro 2 cannot go into mass production until the first half of 2027 at the earliest, there would be no technical update of the glasses for years, Kuo fears. “Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the expected significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments beginning in 2025 may not occur.”
He sounds a little more optimistic in his most recent article on the topic of Vision Pro. He states that it will be the most important product for Apple in 2024. If user feedback is “better than expected,” it could possibly convince the market “that the Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics.”