Exports increased fiftyfold
Sanctioned goods come to Russia via Türkiye and the CIS
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The West has imposed far-reaching sanctions on Russia since the beginning of the war of aggression against Ukraine. Banned goods – including parts for the arms industry – still end up in Putin's empire. As the IFO Institute shows, their route primarily goes via the Bosphorus and through the CIS.
According to the IFO Institute, Russia circumvents sanctions on Western goods primarily through Central Asian countries and Turkey. This was shown by studies of trade data for sanctioned goods, as the Munich researchers announced. Goods that are critical for the Russian economy or important for the military industry – such as vehicles, ball and roller bearings – were examined.
“Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey exported 50 times more goods critical to the Russian economy or important to the military industry to Russia in 2022 than they exported general goods to all destination countries in 2019,” said the deputy head of the IFO Center for Foreign Trade, Feodora Teti. “This indicates a very high probability of sanctions evasion.”
Since March 2022 – the first month after the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine – eight percent of all Russian imports of goods that are important for weapons systems and military development have come from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Of the goods that are critical for the Russian economy, three percent of all imports to Russia come from the CIS countries.
“China remains the most important trading partner for Russia,” Teti said. 51 percent of the goods that are important for the Russian economy or military industry come from the People's Republic. “However, sanctions evasion via China appears to be less widespread,” Teti said. The sharp increase in the Chinese share of imports to Russia can be at least partially explained by increased domestic production in the People's Republic.
In view of the sanctions, Russia is becoming less and less important for the German economy. Exports of goods there fell by 38.8 percent to 8.9 billion euros last year. German imports from Russia even fell by 90.0 percent to 3.7 billion euros.
