That’s how expensive it could be

The past heating season was already more expensive than expected for many consumers. The current one doesn’t seem to be favorable either, as an analysis shows.

Private households should heat and live a little more economically in the next few months. There is a risk of a price shock with the next heating bill. This is what the energy service provider Ista predicts. And consumer advocates also warned on t-online a few weeks ago that the coming heating season will be significantly more expensive than usual for many consumers. You can read more about this topic here.

The most recent coalition decisions – such as increasing the CO₂ tax from 40 to 45 euros per ton from 2024 – are not yet taken into account in the forecasts.

According to Ista and the news magazine “spiegel.de”, tenants should expect additional costs of up to 867 euros. However, this price forecast only applies to households that heat their water or use gas or oil.

The main reason for this is the heating behavior of consumers. The heating requirement was ten percent lower compared to the previous year (in the current heating season it is warmer on average than in the previous season), as the Ista’s “Heiz-O-Meter” shows. Nevertheless, 12 percent more heating was used and, accordingly, 12 percent more heating energy was consumed.

Although gas prices have fallen significantly this year, tenants whose apartment is connected to gas heating must expect additional costs of up to 867 euros, according to Ista calculations.

Tenants whose apartment is connected to oil heating must expect an additional financial burden of up to 716 euros during the current heating season. And this despite the fact that the heating oil price averaged 105.50 euros per ton in 2023 and 139 euros per ton in the previous year.

According to Ista’s calculations, district heating customers do not have to expect as high additional costs as other consumers. In some cases, you can even hope for a lower heating bill, according to the forecast. A four-person household could pay up to 345 euros less than last year, it is said.

t-online asked the non-profit consulting company co2online, which publishes the 2023 heating index and a forecast every year.

Alexander Steinfeldt, press spokesman at co2online, predicts the following development for gas customers: “Gas prices for new customers are lower this year than last year. According to the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry, the gas price was 15.3 cents/kWh in the first three quarters of 2022 in the fourth quarter of 2022 at 20 cents. In the first three quarters of 2023, the gas price is just under 14 cents. Due to the gas price brake for 80 percent of consumption, the average price is 12.4 cents.” And the expert cannot support another aspect either: “Various evaluations show increasing energy consumption in 2023. But we cannot verify this yet. The weather is at least similar to last year, which is why we continue to expect heating costs to fall.”

Co2online also has a forecast ready for district heating customers: “When it comes to district heating, it is even more difficult to make statements about price developments. The District Heating Working Group publishes an evaluation of a price survey among district heating providers twice a year.” Accordingly, the price for district heating in April 2023 increased by around 40 percent compared to the evaluation in October 2022. A year later, in October 2023, the district heating price fell by 10 percent compared to April 2023, said Steinfeldt. “This means that the price is still above the previous year’s level. Due to the heat price brake for 80 percent of consumption, the costs for heating are at a similar or slightly higher level than in 2022.”