Heating with natural gas is becoming increasingly more expensive – that is the prediction of many experts. But is that really true? And if so, what are the reasons? Are there cheaper alternatives?
The prices for natural gas in Germany are currently relatively stable. New customers now pay an average of 9.5 cents for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of natural gas – almost the same as a week ago. The reasons for this include falling demand and full gas storage facilities in Germany.
But will things continue to be so calm and stable? After all, there was a similar development a few years ago: prices were stable at an average of 5 cents/kWh (2021) and then rose to 21.4 cents/kWh within two months in autumn 2021. The trigger was, among other things, the increased demand for gas in Asia. This was shortly followed by Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, which also led to a drastic increase in gas prices.
Many natural gas customers are therefore unsure whether the gas price will remain stable and comparatively low, or whether heating and cooking with gas will soon become a luxury.
In fact, the price of natural gas is expected to rise from 2025. The reason for this is the CO2 discount. This will be increased from 45 euros to 55 euros/ton of CO2 in the new year. This means that for an annual consumption of 5,000 kWh there are 67 euros (2024: 55 euros) in CO2 costs and for an annual consumption of 12,000 kWh 162 euros (2024: 132 euros).
The situation could get even worse in the following year. From 2026, CO2 certificates will be allowed to be auctioned. The price range for 1 ton of CO2 is then between 55 and 65 euros. With the introduction of a free European emissions trading system in 2027, CO2 taxes could then rise even more significantly. How high is currently not known.
Representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are also aiming to increase the CO2 levy to at least 71 euros/t CO2 (75 US dollars/t CO2) by 2030. Scientists, on the other hand, are calling for an increase to up to 152 euros/t CO2 (160 US dollars/t CO2).
The price of natural gas will therefore continue to rise. This in turn could encourage many private households to operate their gas heating with climate-neutral and ecological gas, i.e. biogas. After all, no CO2 taxes would have to be paid for this, right?
Unfortunately that's not true. The tax is also due for biogas. The reason is that gas providers usually do not (cannot) offer pure, i.e. real, biogas. They often mix it with natural gas. Only if the producer can prove that his gas was produced sustainably – i.e. from the fermentation of organic waste – does the CO2 tax not have to be paid.
Another fact that leads to an increase in natural gas prices: In 2025, most network operators will increase their network fees by over 20 percent (details here). The operators can decide for themselves how high the increases will be. Because the network fees are not regulated by law. The reason: They depend on the costs of the respective network area and the respective gas sales in this area, explains the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA). However, the BNetzA controls the fees to ensure appropriateness and freedom from discrimination.
- Read here: Gas: This is why you pay more than others
Experts assume that there will be fewer and fewer natural gas customers due to rising fees and taxes. This in turn means that the network fees that arise for the use of the gas infrastructure have to be distributed among fewer and fewer customers. The result: network fees are rising even more than before. And within shorter periods of time. This relaxation of the network fee requirements is intended to ensure that gas network operators can react urgently and recoup the costs of their investments more quickly.
In the long term, gas heaters that run on natural gas have no future. The policy is to focus more on renewable energies and move away from gas and oil. This is not only illustrated by the ban on gas heating from 2045. Another indication is that more and more municipal utilities are switching off their gas network or only want to use the infrastructure to transport hydrogen in the future.
Until a few years ago, the price of gas was tied to the price of oil. This means that natural gas always became more expensive when the price of oil rose – and vice versa. Both raw materials have now been decoupled. This in turn means that the price of natural gas does not automatically fall with the price of oil. This means that a falling price for natural gas on the wholesale market is very unlikely. Much more likely – even if only to a very small extent – would be a drastic increase within a very short period of time, as was the case most recently in 2021. Either way, heating and cooking with gas will become a luxury in the long term.
