Economic topics hardly drive East Germans to AfD and BSW

Studies show different problems
Economic topics hardly drive East Germans to AfD and BSW

AfD and BSW are in the state elections in September in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. It is often attempted to combine the rise of the two populist parties with the economic problems. But according to economists, that falls short. You provide other explanations:

Are economic issues the decisive factor?

The Bill Clinton team already knew that economic issues can be decisive. The Democrat moved into the White House in 1992 with the saying “It matters to the economy” (“It's the Economy, Stupid”). In the elections in East Germany, however, this slogan must be changed, say economists. “It's the Demography, Stupid,” says a study by the employer -related institute of the German economy (IW).

Why is that?

With the exception of some cities such as Leipzig, Dresden or the Berlin surrounding area, the east suffers from population loss. Between 1990 and 2022, the population collapsed 15 percent to 12.6 million, while in the west it increased by 10 percent to 68 million. From 2012 to 2022 alone, the East German circles shrank by 2.2 percent – the West German grew by 4.5 percent, as the IW study says. Economic pessimism is particularly pronounced in shrinking regions: According to the study, 80 percent of the East Germans surveyed underestimate the economic development of their living region. “Populist parties naturally take advantage of this difference between perception and reality,” says IW researcher Diermeier. “Economic pessimism is reflected in a stronger tendency towards political edges – that is, AfD and BSW.”

What about aging?

This is progressing faster in the east. In 1990 the population was even younger here than in the old Federal Republic: the proportion of under 20 years was 25 percent, in the west 21 percent. “This relationship has been reversed over time,” says the Federal Statistical Office. In 2022, the proportion of under 20s was 18 percent lower in the east than in the west with 19 percent. At the same time, the proportion of 65-year-olds at 27 percent is significantly higher than in the West (21 percent). In 2023 the average age in the east was 47.3 years, but only 44.2 in the west. “Where young, well -qualified people migrate, close schools and hospitals and lack doctors and meeting points for social contacts, the voice share of AfD and BSW is much higher,” says the President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher .

How did unemployment develop?

Nationwide, the unemployment rate is currently 6.0 percent. It is higher in the east, but not far from the nationwide cut: in July it was only one tick in Brandenburg with 6.1 percent, as was in Thuringia (6.3 percent) and Saxons (6.6 percent) – but Lower than in North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland. “The old story that East Germany is much worse than the West is largely outdated,” says the chief economist of Berenberg Bank, Holger Schmieding.

And yet: Despite the clear mining of unemployment, less than every third East German is satisfied with the development on the domestic labor market over the past ten years. A third is even explicitly dissatisfied, according to the IW survey.

And what about the wages?

Here the distance is greater. In West Germany, the average gross wage for an employee is almost 43,000 euros a year. In the three eastern German countries mentioned, the average is significantly below, each with around 37,000 euros. “The East German federal states have developed economically in the past 25 years and are now much better than expected,” emphasizes Diw boss Fratzscher. “The economic conditions, the income, the quality of the jobs and social security in the East German federal states have approached those in West Germany and are today significantly better than in almost any other region of the former Eastern Bloc.”

What about economic power?

Here, too, the differences are still quite clear. The gross domestic product in West Germany was almost 51,000 euros per inhabitant last year. In Thuringia it is only a good 35,700 euros, 37,800 in Brandenburg and 38,100 in Saxony.

Why is demography such a strong factor?

According to studies by the DIW, the great frustration of many and the support of the AfD in East Germany is primarily due to the future worries and a lack of social participation. “The most important explanation for the strength of AfD and BSW in East Germany is demography,” explains Diw President Fratzscher. The Ifo Institute comes to a similar result. “Populistic parties are particularly popular in regions in which a high number of older voters live and in which people look into the future with little confidence,” said the deputy head of the IFO branch in Dresden, Joachim Ragnitz. However, there is no connection to factors of regional economic strength or an unfavorable labor market situation.

What follows?

The IW attributes an important role to the company on site. They would enjoy a relatively high credibility, unlike politics and the media. “Economic successes should therefore be named as clearly as the prevailing difficulties,” says IW researcher Diermeier. Politics should aim to enable equivalent living conditions. “This can be done near the city, for example, through the settlement of authorities or companies,” said the expert. “In rural areas, on the other hand, basic infrastructure must be guaranteed.” According to DIW President Fratzscher, politics should take the future worries more seriously and invest in better general care.